Causes of Contemporary Stagnation: Proceedings of an by Martin Bronfenbrenner (auth.), Prof. Dr. Helmut Frisch,

By Martin Bronfenbrenner (auth.), Prof. Dr. Helmut Frisch, Prof. Dr. Bernhard Gahlen (eds.)

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It is shown that among the countries in the analysis, Germany is an exceptional case with respect to cyclical price variability - it declined. Reference will be made to Taylor's "second order" Phillips-Curve (1979, p. 1280) - " ••• , there is a long-run trade-off between fluctuations in output and fluctuations in inflation" - but no empirical evidence is found for any country in our sample. But nevertheless, Friedman-type effects (Friedman 1977) do GAHLEN 47 Table 1 : Empirical regularities - 10 Western Industrialized Countries (1960 - 1981 ) DP t (DX t ) DX t (DP t - 1 ) Federal Rep.

The unemployment rate necessary to stabilize inflation at a steady rate; which (ii) answers the question whether the NAIRU is independent of the inflation rate or whether it is possible to achieve permanently less unemployment by tolerating a higher (but stable) inflation rate; and which (iii) takes into expli- cit consideration whether the NAIRU is subject to external supply shocks which should or should not be offset by an increase in unemployment, through demand management. The following theoretical model is familiar and has been presented elsewhere.

1981), Towards an Understanding of the Costs of Inflation: II, in: K. H. ), The Costs and Consequences of Inflation, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 15, 5 - 42. FISCHER, s. (1982), Relative Price Variability and Inflation in the United States and Germany, European Economic Review 18, 171 196 • FRANZ 43 FISCHER, S. and F. MODIGLIANI (1978), Towards an Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 114,810 - 833. S. (1976), Inflation, Oxford.

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